A Behavior Analyst’s Take on Elon Musk’s Salute
Interpreting the history, setting, antecedents and consequences of the dangerous behavior
Let’s look at this objectively. As a behavior analyst who studies the behavior of people on a daily basis, I am going to approach this like I would any other behavior I’m studying to understand why it’s happening and what it means.
When studying a person’s behavior, I look at their behavioral and personal history, the events preceding the behavior (setting events and antecedents), the behavior itself, and what happened after the behavior (consequences).
History: I look at the history of the person in relation to that particular behavior. Have they done it before? Has anyone in their life done it before? What was the response to this behavior in the past?
Setting events and antecedents: I look at what was happening the day of the behavior and what is the surrounding context. More closely in the timeline, I look at what happened and what was said immediately before the behavior that could be a trigger.
The behavior itself: What exactly did it look like and sound like in the moment?
Consequences: How did the environment change immediately following the behavior? How was it received?
Given our framework, I’m going to lay out the immediate setting events of Elon’s salute. Let’s start with the day of:
Setting events:
What relevant events happened the day Elon Musk gave this salute?
Trump was inaugurated as President of the United States. With this inauguration, Elon officially took on the role of Administrator of the Department of Government Efficiency in the United States government. This position gives Elon power within the U.S. government that is new for him.
Where was he when he gave this salute? Who was with him?
He was in the Capital Arena for the post-inauguration celebration. The room was filled with Trump supporters, who by proxy, likely support Elon and his views.
Antecedents: what happened before the behavior
What did he say before he saluted?
“Yes. This is what victory feels like. Yeah. This was no ordinary victory. This was a fork in the road of human civilization. Okay? There are elections that come and go. Some elections are important, some are not. But this one really mattered. I just want to say thank you for making it happen. Thank you.”
Behavior
The salute described
[Elon pounds his fist to chest then extends his right arm from the shoulder, slightly above his head, arm straight out, palm down while grunting. He turns around and makes the same gesture: extends his right arm straight out at the shoulder with palm facing down, toward the crowd behind him.]
Consequences: what happened after the behavior
What did he say after he saluted?
“My heart goes out to you. It is thanks to you that the future of civilization is assured. Thanks to you.”
How did the people in the audience respond?
Applause and cheering.
History:
What is the history of the Nazi salute?
According to Tales of Hi and Bye by Torbjörn Lundmark, rising the right arm with palms facing down was originally known as the Roman salute in ancient Rome and was a gesture of respect.
In Mussolini’s Italy and Hitler’s Germany, the salute took on different meaning.
In Germany, the Nazi salute was a powerful symbol of Nazi ideology in 1930’s Germany, used at rallies, public events, and military gatherings. It was often accompanied by chanting or shouting "Heil Hitler" or "Sieg Heil."
Since World War II, Neo-Nazis and other white supremacists have often used the salute, making it the “most common white supremacist hand sign in the world.”3
What is Neo-Nazism?
Wikipedia defines it like this: “Neo-Nazism comprises the post-World War II militant, social, and political movements that seek to revive and reinstate Nazi ideology. Neo-Nazis employ their ideology to promote hatred and racial supremacy (often white supremacy).”5
Most notably in the conversation here are the ideas of: ultranationalism where a country asserts its own supremacy over other nations; xenophobia, a fear of foreigners and the fear of losing a national or racial identity; and supremacism, that a certain group of people should have authority over other groups.
When Elon said in his inaugural celebration speech that “we have assured the future of civilization”, I wonder what he meant.
Personal History
What is Elon’s personal history with Neo-Nazism and white supremacy?
Elon’s grandfather J. N. Haldeman shared openly Nazi sentiment and moved his family to Pretoria, South Africa and became a vocal supporter of the apartheid movement there in the 1950s. Haldeman, in one of his apartheid tracts stated, “The facts of history show that the White man has always developed the country he inhabits to the benefit of all concerned,”6
Elon grew up in apartheid South Africa, where whites held the highest social status, followed by Indians, “Coloreds”, and black Africans. Apartheid means “separateness.” His father, Errol Musk, served on the Pretoria City Council as a member of the anti-apartheid Progressive Party. During South African Apartheid, public facilities were separated by race, and marriages across racial lines were illegal. Residences were determined by racial classification. Across 23 years, 3.5 million black Africans were forced into segregated neighborhoods.
Elon left South Africa at 18 and emigrated to Canada.
Elon has repeatedly shared his anti-immigrant and anti-Islam sentiments. Here are quotes from a variety of sources over the past two years:
“Elon Musk hijacked British politics this week with a stream of at least 60 X posts since Tuesday attacking Prime Minister Keir Starmer, defending an anti-Islam campaigner and endorsing the far-right Reform Party.”
-Dave Lawler, Axios
In 2024, Musk’s frequent posts on immigration — including claims about the crimes attributed to migrants, the pace of their entry into the US, and the false assertion that Democrats are using them to cast votes — have received more reposts than any other policy issue he writes about.”
-Davey Alba, Julia Love, Jeff Kao and Leonardo Nicoletti, Bloomberg
“Even before protestors took to the streets in the UK, the billionaire was responding to a broad array of right-wing European agitators, including Dutch anti-climate activists, Austrian ethnonationalists and an (anonymous) anti-immigrant campaigner from Italy known for spreading dubious claims about various minority groups. And when I say responding, I don’t mean he was doing the good work of fact-checking them. Musk’s actions have lent weight and considerable attention to fringe ideologies, which would have once struggled to gain purchase in Europe’s more staid political traditions. With 194 million followers on X, anything Musk engages with will find a much larger audience than it would otherwise get.”
-Daniel Zuidijk, Bloomberg
Musk has also spoken out against antisemitism, notably during a legal battle with the Anti-Defamation league, where ADL accused Musk and X of amplifying antisimetic sentiment on the social media platform.
Moreover, in December 2024, Elon Musk wrote on X, “Only the AfD can save Germany.” This refers to Germany’s Alternative for Germany party, a far-right anti-immigrant and anti-Islam movement being monitored by the Germany’s domestic intelligence agency for extremism. In September, AfD became the first far-right party to win the most votes in a state election since the Nazi era. On Saturday January 25th, Musk participated in a video call for the AfD rally stating he believes the party is meant to “preserve German culture”.
Hypothesis
Given Musk’s personal history and upbringing in Neo-Nazi and Apartheid culture, it is likely he understands the meaning and implications of the Nazi salute. His family history does not solidify his political ideology as it relates to Nazis, however, his exposure confirms the likelihood he understands the significance and perception of the Nazi salute.
Taking into account the setting of current events: when in the physical presence of an audience supporting Trump and his own political power, Musk may be more likely to display radical political leanings. This could account for his support of the Jewish people on X, where the immediate audience of posts are varied and where he has more to lose with regard to his own financial and personal status.
Musk also was granted immediate praise and applause from the audience following his Nazi salute, which, given his propensity to bask in social attention, makes it more likely that he will engage in the behavior again. Additionally, he received widespread support from far-right agitators and Neo-Nazis over the action.
However, the wider public and global response has been varied, and it’s difficult to tell how Musk will respond given the public backlash. Will this “negative attention” lend to a probability he will continue to espouse Neo-Nazi sentiment because all attention is good attention for him, or will any outcry diminish the likelihood he will do so publicly in the future?
What’s next?
Because of Musk’s ambiguous denials of wrongdoing, it’s challenging to know what we as citizens can do with this information. As I do with all dangerous behavior, I want to continue to observe Musk’s closely and hold him accountable for actions that could incite racism and violence from his powerful position.
References:
1. https://www.rev.com/transcripts/elon-musk-speaks-at-post-inauguration-celebration
3. https://www.adl.org/resources/hate-symbol/hitler-salute-hand-sign
5. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neo-Nazism
6. https://www.techpolicy.press/tracking-elon-musks-political-activities/